GUIDE TO SEPTEMBER 2026 POSTS
POPULATION PROJECTIONS / IMMIGRATION
World Population Prospects 2024
The estimated likelihood that the world’s population will peak within the current century is very high (with a probability of 80 per cent); this varies sharply from the 2013 projections which said there was only a 30 per cent chance. This is already coming about.
In 63 countries and areas – containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024 – the size of the population peaked before 2024.
In 48 countries and areas, representing 10 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, the population size is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100.
Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 countries through 2100, including Australia, Canada and the United States of America.
Global Population Growth is Slowing
An excellent graphic and summary by STATISTA, available for free.
US Population Growth Corrected Downward
Another excellent graphic and summary by STATISTA, available for free.
The latest 2026 Congressional Budget Office forecast reached a new low compared to the previous years' ups-and-downs as U.S. net immigration fell majorly in 2025. As a reversal of low birth rates seem more and more unlikely, immigration continues to keep U.S. population growth afloat. Immigrants have contributed more to it than net births have since the second year of the coronavirus pandemic. The Congressional Budget Office expects U.S. net births to turn negative around 2030, at which point only immigration will be contributing to U.S. population growth.
But the U.S. population is not just growing slower, it is also aging in the process. While in 2026, there are 2.7 working-age Americans (25 to 64 years old) per one American aged 65 or over, this will have changed to 2.2 to 1 in 2056 as the big cohort of baby boomers continues to cross this age threshold. As a result, more strain is expected on safety net system like Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.
Immigration Makes Up Most of US Population Growth
The U.S. population grew by around 1.8 million people last year and immigrants made up more than 70 percent of that increase. Apart from this general trend, fluctuations tied to immigration policy are clearly visible in the data (as is the release of a new Census in 2021). During the first Trump administration, fewer immigrants settled permanently in the country in 2017-2019, causing the share of immigration in population growth to shrink. The same happened in 2025 when immigrant settlements fell once again from their post-Covid peak (after the pandemic itself had been another factor that disrupted immigration flows).
By the 2028 Election the threat of a stagnant and aging American population could become a major political issue, and the lack of immigrants a threat to our prosperity.
GROWING OLDER ADULT POPULATIONS
Old Age Dependency UN Projections
Many countries around the world are facing a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio, according to projections published in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024. This indicator measures the number of people aged 65 and older relative to the working-age population (between 15 and 64 years old).
Established industrial economies such as the United States are projected to age more gradually, with the old-age dependency ratio rising from 29.3 to 37.9 over the same period. By comparison, China is expected to undergo a particularly rapid demographic shift, with its ratio more than doubling from 21.6 to 52.3
These UN projections are based on certain trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration. If these trends continue, ageing populations are likely to put increasing pressure on labor markets, pension systems and public finances, requiring governments to adapt their policies to older populations. It's important to note that this data does not account for the fact that many people over the age of 65 are still working, and younger people will not all be working.
The Looming Retirement Crises
Employment Age 56-64 in Selected Countries
the most recent data (2024) from the OECD Dashboard on Older Workers highlights that uneven employment outcomes persist for people in the final decade of their working lives (aged 55 to 64). Employment rates among this age group range from just 39 percent in South Africa to 79 percent in Japan, while in major European countries, rates vary from around 60 percent in Italy and France to 75 percent in Germany, with the United Kingdom at 66 percent. In North America (the United States and Canada), the rate stands at 64 percent
An aging population represents a major challenge for many countries around the world. Falling birth rates coupled with rising life expectancies are likely to place significant pressure on labor markets, healthcare and pension systems. OECD data reveals how a number of countries are facing particularly rapid aging. Where the number of retirees for every 100 workers already stood at 52 in Japan and 40 in Italy in 2020, projections say this could hit 81 and 74 by 2050.
the most recent data (2024) from the OECD Dashboard on Older Workers highlights that uneven employment outcomes persist for people in the final decade of their working lives (aged 55 to 64). Employment rates among this age group range from just 39 percent in South Africa to 79 percent in Japan, while in major European countries, rates vary from around 60 percent in Italy and France to 75 percent in Germany, with the United Kingdom at 66 percent. In North America (the United States and Canada), the rate stands at 64 percent
At the same time, many older jobseekers face prolonged periods out of work. In this group, the incidence of long-term unemployment (defined as being unemployed for more than a year) reaches 77 percent in South Africa, 62 percent in Italy, 56 percent in Spain and 44 percent in France.
By contrast, the United States and Canada combine mid-range employment rates (both 64 percent) with lower shares of long-term unemployment, at 15 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
Lake County encompasses 23 cities, villages, and townships. The area is home to 66,841 adults over 60, accounting for 28.8 percent of the county's total population. The growth is particularly pronounced among the population ages 85 and above. Increasing numbers of the oldest residents is expected to increase demand for supportive services including home-delivered meals, housekeeping, home modification, in-home care, and social connectedness. The entire community will need to adapt to these changes.
ELDERLY AS PERCENT OF LAKE COUNTY POPULATON | |||||||
Age Group | YEAR | ||||||
2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | |
60+ | 28.3% | 29.9% | 30.2% | 29.7% | 28.6% | 28.2% | 27.9% |
75+ | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.1% |
85+ | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
60-74 | 19.9% | 20.7% | 20.0% | 18.3% | 16.6% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
75-84 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
85+ | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
Ratio 60-74/85+ | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
WHILE THE AGE 60+ POPULATION OF LAKE COUNTY REACHES A MAXIMUM PERCENTAGE IN 2030, THE AGE 85+ POPULATION DOES NOT ITS MAXIMUM PERCENTAGE UNTIL 2045- 2050.
FROM 2025 UNTIL 2030 THE YOUNG ELDERLY OF AGE 60-74 NEED TO ORGANIZED THEMSELVES TO PROVIDE NOT ONLY FOR THE 2.5% OF THE COUNTY OVER AGE 85 BUT ALSO SHAPE THE COUNTY SO THAT THEY WILL BE PROVIDED FOR AS THEY BECOME OVER 75 AND THEN OVER 85.
CURRENTLY THERE ARE MORE THAN 8 YOUNG ELDERLY AGE 60-75 FOR EVERY VERY ELDERLY PERSON OVER 85. MOST OF THESE "YOUNG ELDERLY" ARE HEALTHY, AND RETIRED.
"Americans ages 65 and older earn a median salary of $1,193 per week or $62,036 per year. This figure is for full-time workers, so it doesn’t take into account the many people in this age bracket who drop out of the workforce to begin taking income from Social Security and their retirement savings. "
A person with an annual salary, or retirement income of $56,000 should value the worth of their sixteen-hour day at about $500 which is a weekly worth of around $3000 and an annual worth of around $160,000.
Assuming good health, three years of activity should be valued at about a half million dollars and a decade of activity at over a million and a half. One should be able to undertake some quite significant projects during retirement with those assets.
According to Laslett's (1987, 1991) theory of the Third Age, one's life consists of four ages, and its culmination comes at the Third Age. Those in each age are called first, second, third, or fourth agers, respectively (Carr, 2009). The respective ages have characteristics:
First Age: an era for dependence, socialization, immaturity, and learning
Second Age: an era for independence, maturity, responsibility, and working
Third Age: an era for personal achievement and fulfillment after retirement, and
Fourth Age: an era for the final dependence, decrepitude, and death
An Aging Boom for American Catholicism
By 2030, 6.8 million additional Catholics in the United States will be entering the stage of life where they are most likely to pray, to go to church, to reflect on religious subjects and to be open to a deeper religious commitment. Improvements in general health mean the elderly can remain active members of the church for much longer periods of time. Three in four persons aged 65-74 in the United States, and two in three of those over 75, say their health is “good to excellent.”
They also have the means to contribute financially to the church; the advertising firm Martino and Binzer, which specializes in “mature marketing,” estimates that Americans over 55 possess $1.5 trillion in discretionary spending.
Old age is not a disease,” my mom proclaimed. By this time, she was close to ninety. But age had already long freed her tongue: on reaching eighty she’d informed us, more than once, “I’m old now and I can say what I want. Pope Francis channeled my mom, speaking out against temptations to pathologize aging: “Many people are afraid of old age. They consider it a sort of disease with which any contact is best avoided.”
Francis claims his place as one from among these “new people,” new in the sense that “there have never been so many of us in human history.” He writes and speaks as a voice of his generation, situating himself among his elder peers. He gets it—physically, socially, and emotionally—from the disappointment of curtailing participation in anticipated events, to increased dependence on a wheelchair, to health scares underscoring mortality.
PURPOSE OF THIS BLOG
is to create a virtual community organized around reading articles from Commonweal magazine and other sources within a framework of Voluntary Spiritual Leadership
structured along seven dimensions: Leadership, Forms of Capital (Human, Social & Cultural), Time: Spirituality, Voluntarism, Bible, and Prayer,
This Blog Facilitates the Formation of Commonweal Local Communities (CLCs) by persons, households, neighborhoods, associations professional, civic, and religious groups. Although Commonweal limits nonsubscribers to three few articles per month, the extensive additional sources may be found useful by other individuals and groups.
If anyone wishes to start or join a CLC in Lake County simply register at the above link. It will automatically forward the information to me as the Commonweal Contact Person for the Cleveland area
The above post summarizes my experience with the Cleveland Commonweal Local Community as well as a blog that descended from the dotCommonweal Blog. A variety of models are proposed including Network of Local Communities Model, University/Liberal Arts College Leadership Model, What Makes for a Fulfilling Life Model, Recruit a Friend Model, Circles of Friendship Model, Human/Social/Cultural Capital Model, Hospitality Model, Virtual Commonweal Local Communities, One Time Events Model, Commonweal Parish Communities, Commonweal Household Communities, Saint Gabriel Hours Model.